Video Blog #3 – Where Do They Go From Here? (Grizzlies, Nuggets, Mavericks, Jazz)
In this blog I discuss the futures and upcoming summers for the Western Conference teams eliminated in Round 1.
Thought on Heat Pacers Game 4: Wade punches the Pacers in the face, Lebron has a potential moment
Miami Heat forward LeBron James and Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade after their win against the Washington Wizards during an NBA basketball game in Washington, on Saturday, Dec. 18, 2010. The Heat won 95-94. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
First off, I want to give credit to Lebron James for that game. It is slightly disrespectful to talk about him 2nd most when he drops a 40 pts, 18 rebound, 9 assist game. Without Lebron the Heat neither would’ve been close at halftime nor would they have put on such a show in the second half. If the Heat win a title this game will go down as an important one for him.
However I can’t help but feel that game belonged to Dwyane Wade. Good players produce in the playoffs, but great players change games. Dwyane Wade completley changed Game 4 and arguably the series. When the Pacers led 61-51 with 8:29 left in the 3rd, they really were in control of the game and play. They had seen a strong game from Lebron in the 1st half but were content to simply outproduce him as a team versus one man. As soon as Wade tapped into his 2006 and 2011 Finals form from that point forward, the game belonged to the Heat. They had the superior energy level and confidence on both ends, with Lebron and the Heat’s defense riding the momentum wave to their best half of the playoffs.
Ultimately this is the reason why we value big performances and winners in the playoffs. The players who come up winners in the postseason are most often the ones who have moments like this. With the Heat looking nearly dead on the scoreboard and in energy level, Dwyane Wade changed his team’s fate – and in the NBA playoffs one half can make all the difference. This is something stats can’t quite capture. Wade could’ve had an identical 13-23 30 pt, 9 rebound, 6 assist game but in a drastically different way – say with 10 pts in the 1st, 10 in the 2nd, 5 in the 3rd, and 5 in the 4th and it may have led to a game the Pacers controlled confidently, then closed out in the 2nd half. But what he did in this game truly dropped an anvil on the Pacers’ head – which may be the most effective way to steal control of a series on the road. The scariest part about the Heat in their 2 seasons has always been their ability to put together 8 to 12 pt runs at any time, due to their speed off strong defensive plays. If they go onto compete for a title I believe it will be have to be in a fashion similar to this. Games that look ugly and close for some time, then broken open by unstoppable runs by its two stars. This game was a good start.
NBA Draft Scouting Video: Anthony Davis
Second in my series of draft scouting videos. Includes analysis of likely #1 pick Anthony Davis’ shotblocking, defensive movement, post defense, driving to the basket, shooting, post scoring, post misses, passing, screen setting, rebounding.
Is Lebron’s Game 3 against the Pacers destined to be a forgotten meltdown?
Wizards v/s Heat 03/30/11 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
As I watched the Heat let the Pacers blow them out to a 2-1 lead in Game 3, I eagerly awaited for the 3rd year in a row, the morning after reaction to yet another Lebron disappearance in the most important game of the season so far. From a 43-43 tied score at halftime to the 4:16 mark of the 4th when lead 86-67 (the game essentially over), Lebron went 1-7 with no free throw line attempts except a missed technical (bookended by a Granger staredown and Lance Stephenson choke sign) and no shot attempts within 10 feet - for 2 total points. Once again in game seizing time, Lebron’s production shrank as he timidly put up jumpshots.
Yet the reaction has been nowhere near what it was after the disappearing act in the 2011 Finals or Game 5 against Boston in 2010. The reason for this is a few things. Thanks to his play in the first half and garbage time, Lebron still put up 22 pts (10-22), 7 rebounds, 3 assists, a respectable number. Secondly Wade had arguably the worst game of his career, let alone playoff career, with 5 pts (2-13), 5 TOVs, and a scuffle with Erik Spoelestra, to wear the goathorns moreso than James. Finally, as has been the case the rest of the series, the Heat simply had no depth past Lebron, Wade and Mario Chalmers’ excellent 25 pt night offensively – with Shane Battier, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem continuing to be MIA.
Thus the reaction has been for the most part that Lebron simply didn’t have the help this game, as he hasn’t all series.
I’m not buying it. Read the rest of this entry »
Video Blog #2 – Where Do They Go From Here? (Knicks, Bulls, Magic, Hawks)
Video Blog #2 – Discussion of the Eastern Conference teams who were eliminated in Round 1 of the playoffs (New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks). Topics include the need for patience for the Knicks, the worry of the Thibodeau effect wearing out next season for the Bulls, the Magic’s Howard and Anderson decisions this summer, and whether the Hawks should trade one of their star players
Deron Williams and the Indiana Pacers: A match made in heaven that is unlikely to happen due to silly reasons
Deron Williams NBA Draft 2005 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Since Dwight Howard picked up his player option with the Orlando Magic, Deron Williams has been the big free agent prize of this summer. He’s an elite talent with size and explosiveness, elite playmaking and feel for the game and an outside shot – easily a top 5 player at the PG position. Deron has had a turbulent handful of seasons since a fed up Utah Jazz sent him to the NBA’s version of Siberia in the New Jersey Nets, then on the verge of a team-up with Dwight Howard, a W.T.F. move from his Dwightness by picking up next season’s player option left Deron without the assurance he’ll have Howard if he resigns with the Nets this year. Furthermore the “other option”, the Dallas Mavericks, certainly don’t look like a plum deal. Dirk Nowitzki may be a 2nd star, but he just finished his 14th season which is as far as the primes of even the most longevity friendly stars go and both he and the Mavericks certainly didn’t look like themselves this year. The Mavericks also have next to no long term, young talent to surround Deron Williams with. The Mavericks are not a great long term situation for Deron. Their appeal likes with Marc Cuban’s strength as an owner/GM – But is that enough?
The truth is there’s a perfect situation for Deron Williams out there – and they have the capspace enough to sign him this summer. It’s the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are in the 2nd round after a 50 W+ equivalent season and have a loaded group of talented forwards in Danny Granger, Paul George, David West, Tyler Hansbrough and Roy Hibbert. The biggest thing holding them back is the lack of a finger to pull the trigger on that gun – the backcourt creating talent to make it all come together. If they made a stat comparing PG production to replacement level, they might as well call it “Wins over Darren Collision” – Oh and Collision is their starting point. The Pacers have the frontcourt offense and defensive talent that a star guard would likely make them contenders. Who could be a better fit than Deron Williams? The Pacers would be the perfect supporting cast for him. Granger gives him a secondary perimeter scorer, George hits open 3s and defends at an elite rate, he can play the pick and pop/roll game with David West, and Hibbert anchors the defense and scores in the post. It’s a team with both the talent level and fit to contend for an NBA title year in and year out. Read the rest of this entry »
NBA Draft Scouting Video: Jared Sullinger
I put together this video breakdown of Ohio State lottery prospect Jared Sullinger’s strengths and weaknesses a few days ago. I look at his post scoring, post misses, passing, shooting, screen setting, help defense, man defense, and rebounding/energy level in that order before giving my final thoughts on his future in the NBA.
Video Blog #1 – A few ideas to prevent tanking in the NBA
My first video blog. I enjoyed the process so I will try to post a bit every week or two if I can. Look for draft videos and playoff analysis in the upcoming weeks, but this week’s topic is related to 3 ideas to fix the lottery enough to prevent tanking. All are related to the idea of “diluting the reward” and finding a middle ground between the current system which most agree benefits losing teams too much and the popular idea of making all 14 teams have equal lottery odds, which is too much in the other direction and doesn’t benefit enough the teams who need it the most. The key is to change but not wipe out the present system.
- Julien
The Bobcats’ all-time worst NBA season: Blame the last decade’s moves, not this year
Primary logo (2004–present) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Well, it’s official. The Charlotte Bobcats finished with the all-time worst winning percentage for an NBA team (.106), at 7-59 in this shortened season. Their adjusted point differential (SRS) of -13.96 also broke the futility record.
How did this happen? On the surface, the Bobcats certainly “tanked” this season – after trading veterans Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson for long term draft pick depth, they handed the team over to young players like Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Bismack Biyombo and BJ Mullens (Corey Maggette was the “veteran leader” of the team, but let’s just say there’s a reason his nicknames from previous teams include “Bad Porn” and “The Mole”). GM Rich Cho has been relatively open about how he told the Bobcats franchise that if they wanted to win, they’d have to take a step back for a few years. In other words, they’d have to tank for draft picks.
But in reality this season for the Bobcats was swallowing much needed medicine to get healthy more than the sickness. Read the rest of this entry »
MJ’s NBA Regular Season Award Winners 2011-12
Basketball player LeBron James during the game Washington Wizards versus Miami Heat (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
MVP:
1. LeBron James
2. Chris Paul
3. Kevin Durant
5. Steve Nash
We’ll start from the top. I never saw LeBron as seriously threatened for this award this season, and I say this as someone who put both Dwight Howard and Derrick Rose ahead of him last season (in retrospect, Rose would get downgraded, but not Howard). One can knock LeBron’s impact relative to his time in Cleveland, but put next to the all-too-mortal impact of the rest of the league, no one deserves it more.
Paul floats into the 2nd spot for an extremely impressive transition to the Clippers, but it wasn’t the total transformation it needed to be to elevate him above LeBron. Enough to get him past Durant though. I do love KD, but people do need to realize how much help he has. That might sound weird coming from a guy with LeBron at #1, and believe me I factor the same thing in for LeBron, but there really is no good reason at all for people to assume Durant’s doing more with less.
The Garnett and Nash picks probably seem strange to many. Bottom line is that we’ve got a lot of teams led by ensemble right now, and other teams led by spotlighted stars I have mixed feelings about. Garnett & Nash continue to bring it, having profound, caveat-free impact.
Defensive Player of the Year
2. Luol Deng
First off, Tyson Chandler is getting so much hype right now, I feel the need to address his omission. I’m very impressed with the guy, but there’s also clearly circumstances playing in to looking like he has a bigger impact than he actually does. Dallas fell apart on offense this year, not defense. New York’s defense improved, but the meat of the improvement comes from steals and turnover creation not with the typical changes caused by a big man. Chandler is involved in allowing his perimeter players to gamble…but so are they.
Garnett’s been the clear per minute DPOY for his entire half decade in Boston. Howard’s been my pick the previous 3 years simply because of how much time Garnett missed. This year Garnett was healthy, and Howard had issues. He is the clear choice for me.
Deng and Iguodala are, I’m sure, controversial picks, Deng especially. I don’t feel terribly strongly for them above Chandler, or even the partial Howard we got this year, but they deserve some love. People can argue about a perimeter defender’s value, and with Deng whether it’s just quirks of luck that put him in such a prominent position, but he remains the guy who coach Thibodeau relies on more than anyone else.
Rookie of the Year
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Ricky Rubio
I’ll once again begin by stating that this is actually the hardest award to pin down a criteria for. When people call it simple, that only means they haven’t thought it through. Quite amusing is the fact that Rubio dropped off people’s radar with his injury, but he actually played about as many minutes as other top rookies like Irving, and considerably more than Faried.
My criteria at this point is essentially: Most Hype-Worthy Future Star. Which means, who has shown the most potential while eliminating the most doubt.
So Irving leads the way over Rubio largely because Irving has really shown a complete game that makes him a sure thing, whereas Rubio with his scoring and injury still has a bit more doubt. Faried, doesn’t have me frothing at the mouth quite like the other guys, and I want to see what his role is from season’s start next year, but what he did this year is jawdropping and I’d have no problem with people giving him ROY votes. His PER instantly dwarfed everyone on the team, and is the 2nd highest of the past decade AHEAD of Blake Griffin last year (and just behind Chris Paul). Love his motor, and I won’t be betting against him.
Most Improved Player
2. James Harden
Some great candidates this year, with Harden being the most glamorous contender. He is easily the best player of the lost, but Pekovic’s improvement is about as drastic as you’ll ever see. He went from a scrub far from assured that he could make it in the league to a near all-star level player overnight. 10+ PER jump. Crazy, and it’s Pek’s arrival that really has me thinking about the Timberwolves as a big-time contender going forward. Kevin Love and Rubio looked amazing already, now we have a 3rd star in the making.
By the way, Jeremy Lin is not on my radar for this award. Perhaps I’ll post in more detail later, but the notion that we Lin’s rise to prominence was due to improvement is a falsehood. Scouts clearly had no concept he was capable of this until he got his opportunity, and then instantly did exceptional. He’s really more a ROY than a MIP.
6th Man of the Year
1. James Harden
2. Jason Terry
The James Harden show. It’s funny because when a 6th man is as good as Harden, people are reluctant to vote for him…despite the fact the whole reason the award exists is because we know that sometimes starter-level players start from the bench for the good of the team and they deserve recognition for their sacrifice. Giving Harden the 6MOY is literally the very LEAST we can do.
I will give a brief shout out to Terry to, who truly has become the dividing line for the award: If you’re off the bench and better than Terry, you’re seriously sacrificing for your team. Terry himself is a solid player who is good enough to start, but clearly not on the level of guys like Harden or “should have been winning 6MOY every year” Manu Ginobili.
Coach of the Year
1. Greg Popovich
3. Frank Vogel
Pop & Thibs are so far above anyone else, it felt weird to make a top 3. I really had a hard debate between the top two, and for most of the year was siding with Thibs. After all: The most shocking fact of the year is that the Bulls without the league MVP were still elite. That’s all about Thibodeau’s coaching.
However, what that really tells us is that the impact of Thibodeau LAST year was even bigger than we realized when we gave him the COY. In terms of a coach making brilliant adjustments in this current year, that really is Pop, which is astonishing. He’s the godfather of current coaches with a coaching tree taller and thicker than any I can recall in the pros…and after all these years he’s still more flexible than anyone else. Amazing.
Executive of the Year
1. Nick Olshey
2. Masai Ujiri
Always tough to choose here, but I always also find it necessary to do. Extremely important part of the game, even if it’s really best to judge over much longer periods than one year.
Olshey gets the nod because he made the big move of acquiring Chris Paul, and also did smaller things like acquiring Chauncey Billups. Was there some luck involved? Sure, but while David Stern might have nixed the Laker deal, Olshey still got it done before the other 28 teams.
Ujiri & O’Connor basically have made the best of rough situations. I’m reluctant to give the nod to a GM who simply helps his team unexpectedly tread water because that undoubtedly has much to do with the coach, but credit where credit is do for navigating high maintenance stars well.
